Altus Group (AIF.TO) – Hunting the Next Odd Lot
February 21, 2026
If you have been following along, you know these Odd Lot “Return Boosters” are a highly effective way to put idle cash to work. We recently executed this playbook with our Docebo Inc. (DCBO) which generated a lot of great traction and feedback from readers who captured the spread.
Yesterday, I also published an active alert for Yext, Inc. (YEXT). While we wait for the market to give us our entry price on Yext, the hunt for the next setup never stops.
To successfully execute this strategy, you cannot just wait for the official paperwork to drop. You have to read the tea leaves in earnings reports and position yourself on the runway before the plane takes off.
Right now, the radar is flashing on Altus Group (AIF.TO).
The Catalyst: An $800 Million Signal On Thursday, February 19, 2026, Altus Group released its Q4 2025 financial results. Buried in the press release was a massive authorization by the Board of Directors: they approved an $800 million capital return program for 2026.
The critical detail for our strategy is how they plan to deploy that capital. Management explicitly stated they intend to use a combination of their Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) and “potential future substantial issuer bid (’SIB’) tenders“.
Why This Matters An NCIB is just the company quietly buying shares on the open market—there is no edge there for us. However, a Substantial Issuer Bid (SIB) is the exact corporate action we need. SIBs are where we typically find the “Odd Lot priority provision,” which legally requires the company to buy back 100% of our shares (if we hold 99 or fewer) without proration, often at a premium to the market price.
Altus Group just completed a $162.8 million SIB last month (January 2026), meaning management is highly comfortable with this mechanism.
The Arbitrage Math: Decoding the “Value Dislocation” The price discrepancy here is a massive signal. The gap between the $57.00 buyback price from last month and the current market price of ~$42.65 is a textbook example of what management calls “value dislocation”.
1. The “Value Signal” from Management
The $57.00 Benchmark: Just last month, Altus Group completed an SIB where they paid $57.00 per share for approximately 2.8 million shares.
Admission of Undervaluation: In the Q4 earnings call on February 19, CEO Mike Gordon explicitly stated that the company is “eager to activate our capital returns to capitalize on the significant dislocation in the value of our shares”.
Inherent Value: The company formally stated that the current market price “may not reflect the inherent value of Altus Group”. When a company authorizes an $800 million return program under these conditions, they are signaling that their own stock is the best investment they can make right now.
2. Why the “Floor” Failed
Low Participation: The January SIB authorized $350 million, but only ~$162.8 million was spent because shareholders were unwilling to sell at $57.00.
Market Sentiment: Investors didn’t treat $57.00 as a permanent floor, and the stock has since plummeted ~26% from those levels.
The Opportunistic Buyback: If management was willing to pay $57.00 just 40 days ago, they are likely highly motivated to launch a new SIB at these much lower prices to “mop up” the shares they couldn’t get in January.
3. Impact on the Strategy
Increased Probability: Management is currently evaluating how to return an additional $300M to $450M in the first half of 2026. Given this dislocation, a second SIB is a high-probability tool.
Wider Potential Spreads: If they launch a new SIB while the stock is at $43.00, the “premium” they offer to entice sellers will likely create a much wider arbitrage spread than the floors we typically see.
Strategic Patience: This is a situation where the company is practically begging to buy back shares because they think the market is “wrong” about the price.
The Verdict The fact that they previously paid $57.00 makes a future SIB at $43.00+ a high-probability event if they want to reach that $800M capital return goal by year-end. By tracking this now, we are positioning ourselves to act the moment the company makes their official move to buy back their "undervalued" stock.
The Execution Protocol: Setting the Trap For now, AIF.TO goes firmly on the watchlist. When Altus officially announces the formal SIB, I will review the legal circular to confirm the exact terms. If the odd-lot exemption is present, I will calculate the spread, verify the execution parameters, and strike.
Stay tuned. The moment the filing drops, the math will follow.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. This post is for educational purposes only. I may hold positions in the securities mentioned. All issuer bids are subject to the terms in the formal circular on SEDAR+ or EDGAR.